Six Symptoms of the Recession End
The majority of economists predict that the world recession will last up to 2010. Nevertheless, nobody can foresee for sure when it really happens. As the matter of the fact, even if the recession in the USA will be over in 2010, it does not mean that it will be our New Year present and by January, 2 the situation will be stabilized. The recession goes on and, we need to wait till the recover starts. And now our main task is not to be cast down and look forward to the end of recession in order to benefit from the crisis. But it is very important not to overlook the moment when the recession will end. There are a number of symptoms indicating that economy at last scrambles out of the crisis and is ready to rise again.
The first symptom of the economical recovery is a steady conduct if Standard and Poor's 500 Stock Index. It should be stable during tree months. The Time claims that if the index continues to come down, it means that investors are waiting for two or three quarters of bad indices.
Sudden leaps also indicate that the situation is not stable. The stability of the index shows that the investors become much surer in the economic situation.
The second signal of the recession end is the cessation of negative trend on car sale. Most of American manufacturers state the lowering of car sale up to 45 percent this year if to compare with last year. It will take more than a year for the indicator to rise at least up to 10–20 percent.
Nevertheless, in the case of American sale stabilization even on the level of 25–30 percent comparing with the level of 2008, it will mean that new car buy transactions become attractive for purchasers again. That signifies the purchasers rid themselves of debts more or less and now are able to buy a new car.
The third signal is credit extension to the countries that cannot cope with the situation of recession. If the credit is given by more successful countries, the credit system is recovering at least on the state level.
One more symptom of the recession end can be stop of GDP decline in China and stabilization of its growth at the level of 6 percent a year. If this indicator will be lower, it means that the USA and Europe do not need cheap industrial goods. The rise of GDP in China indicates on the economic recovery in the West.
The fifth signal is the evidence that the state packets for economic stimulation have their effect. It will be evident when there will be new projects and the level of unemployment will lower.
And finally, the last but not the least symptom of the recession end is considered to be the lowering of the public fund allocation on the bank supporting. It means that the majority of the companies that needed credits so much during the crisis have been able to overcome all the hardships. Or in other words the credit system has recovered and the market has improved at last.
The first symptom of the economical recovery is a steady conduct if Standard and Poor's 500 Stock Index. It should be stable during tree months. The Time claims that if the index continues to come down, it means that investors are waiting for two or three quarters of bad indices.
Sudden leaps also indicate that the situation is not stable. The stability of the index shows that the investors become much surer in the economic situation.
The second signal of the recession end is the cessation of negative trend on car sale. Most of American manufacturers state the lowering of car sale up to 45 percent this year if to compare with last year. It will take more than a year for the indicator to rise at least up to 10–20 percent.
Nevertheless, in the case of American sale stabilization even on the level of 25–30 percent comparing with the level of 2008, it will mean that new car buy transactions become attractive for purchasers again. That signifies the purchasers rid themselves of debts more or less and now are able to buy a new car.
The third signal is credit extension to the countries that cannot cope with the situation of recession. If the credit is given by more successful countries, the credit system is recovering at least on the state level.
One more symptom of the recession end can be stop of GDP decline in China and stabilization of its growth at the level of 6 percent a year. If this indicator will be lower, it means that the USA and Europe do not need cheap industrial goods. The rise of GDP in China indicates on the economic recovery in the West.
The fifth signal is the evidence that the state packets for economic stimulation have their effect. It will be evident when there will be new projects and the level of unemployment will lower.
And finally, the last but not the least symptom of the recession end is considered to be the lowering of the public fund allocation on the bank supporting. It means that the majority of the companies that needed credits so much during the crisis have been able to overcome all the hardships. Or in other words the credit system has recovered and the market has improved at last.
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