Might we (finally) see some 2011 bargains?
There's a bit of a hoo-ha going on in Bordeaux at the moment. Courtesy of some strategic wizardry on the part of Lafite, the other four First Growth estates are facing something of a dilemma. It goes like this:
In recognition of the fact that 2011 is, at best, a modest vintage, the chateaux owners were painfully aware that a significant climb down in price from recent en primeur offerings (09 and 10 were the most expensive on record by multiples) was necessary if they were to seduce buyers. Deciding on the magnitude of the drop, however, was sure to be challenging.
One of the great determiners of achievable price each year are the in-barrel scores from His Bobness, Robert Parker. The great gamble for the chateaux owners in publishing their 2011 prices was whether to release low and early, or keep their fingers crossed for a favourable thumb from Parker.
Lafite Rothschild, in an uncharacteristic move, opted firmly for the former and released first of all the chateaux. Whilst the other four First Growths opted instead for the hedge, Lafite sagely released swiftly at approximately 30% below the previous year.
At €450 per bottle ex chateau, the wine came to the London market at approximately £5,500 per case. In our minds this wasn't a significant enough drop to get excited about making an investment (followers of our newsletter will have received our message of 17 April espousing caution), but it proved sufficient for the estate to successfully sell their initial offerings.
Trouble is, the price was no-where near keen enough to spark the usual fierce trading found in en primeur, and in midst of the greatest damp squib of a campaign many in the trade can remember, Lafite found little favour in the secondary market.
When the Parker scores were finally released, there was little joy for the other chateaux owners. Scores echoed the muted response of the other critics, and placed the vintage in league with the likes of 02 and 07; perfectly decent, but unlikely to set hearts racing.
But low scores alone don't necessarily dictate a poor investment. Indeed, when mixed with appropriately low prices, they can be some of the best, as illustrated by the record windfalls received by investors in vintage 2008. But the price of Lafite simply wasn't low enough for this effect and with no incumbent rally in prices, Lafite (which achieved a lowly 90- 93 rendering it the least loved offering from the estate by Parker for 15 years) can still be bought today – some four weeks after release - for £5,500 (perhaps even a smidgen less - unheard of in en primeur).
Which brings us to the question of the remaining four First Growths. Taking place behind the closed and firmly locked gates of these glorious estates are some decidedly tense discussions. The (unwelcome) solution, clearly, if buyers are to be found, is to release significantly below Lafite.
Lafite is, in fact, the worse scoring First Growth of the vintage. If the other chateaux with their perfectly respectable scores do indeed elect to significantly drop their prices, then we could – for the first time in three years – be presented with some compelling, irresistible even, great value en primeur investments. That, after all, is what en primeur is supposed to be all about.
Wine
Parker Grade
Lafite
90-93
Latour
93-95
Mouton-Rothschild
93-96
Margaux
94-96+
Haut Brion
92-95
IMPORTANT NOTE: Whether or not we ultimate recommend these wines to our customers is entirely prices dependent, and no final decision will be formed until prices are known.
09.05.12
By James Fletcher
Albany Portfolio Management
In recognition of the fact that 2011 is, at best, a modest vintage, the chateaux owners were painfully aware that a significant climb down in price from recent en primeur offerings (09 and 10 were the most expensive on record by multiples) was necessary if they were to seduce buyers. Deciding on the magnitude of the drop, however, was sure to be challenging.
One of the great determiners of achievable price each year are the in-barrel scores from His Bobness, Robert Parker. The great gamble for the chateaux owners in publishing their 2011 prices was whether to release low and early, or keep their fingers crossed for a favourable thumb from Parker.
Lafite Rothschild, in an uncharacteristic move, opted firmly for the former and released first of all the chateaux. Whilst the other four First Growths opted instead for the hedge, Lafite sagely released swiftly at approximately 30% below the previous year.
At €450 per bottle ex chateau, the wine came to the London market at approximately £5,500 per case. In our minds this wasn't a significant enough drop to get excited about making an investment (followers of our newsletter will have received our message of 17 April espousing caution), but it proved sufficient for the estate to successfully sell their initial offerings.
Trouble is, the price was no-where near keen enough to spark the usual fierce trading found in en primeur, and in midst of the greatest damp squib of a campaign many in the trade can remember, Lafite found little favour in the secondary market.
When the Parker scores were finally released, there was little joy for the other chateaux owners. Scores echoed the muted response of the other critics, and placed the vintage in league with the likes of 02 and 07; perfectly decent, but unlikely to set hearts racing.
But low scores alone don't necessarily dictate a poor investment. Indeed, when mixed with appropriately low prices, they can be some of the best, as illustrated by the record windfalls received by investors in vintage 2008. But the price of Lafite simply wasn't low enough for this effect and with no incumbent rally in prices, Lafite (which achieved a lowly 90- 93 rendering it the least loved offering from the estate by Parker for 15 years) can still be bought today – some four weeks after release - for £5,500 (perhaps even a smidgen less - unheard of in en primeur).
Which brings us to the question of the remaining four First Growths. Taking place behind the closed and firmly locked gates of these glorious estates are some decidedly tense discussions. The (unwelcome) solution, clearly, if buyers are to be found, is to release significantly below Lafite.
Lafite is, in fact, the worse scoring First Growth of the vintage. If the other chateaux with their perfectly respectable scores do indeed elect to significantly drop their prices, then we could – for the first time in three years – be presented with some compelling, irresistible even, great value en primeur investments. That, after all, is what en primeur is supposed to be all about.
Wine
Parker Grade
Lafite
90-93
Latour
93-95
Mouton-Rothschild
93-96
Margaux
94-96+
Haut Brion
92-95
IMPORTANT NOTE: Whether or not we ultimate recommend these wines to our customers is entirely prices dependent, and no final decision will be formed until prices are known.
09.05.12
By James Fletcher
Albany Portfolio Management
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