Effect of Climate Change on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality
Effect of Climate Change on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality
Comparisons between temperature-related mortality estimates from different countries are difficult due to variations in the use of emissions scenarios, climate models, future adaptation and demographic assumptions, and modeling choices in epidemiological time-series analyses. In this study, we have followed the same methods for assessing heat- and cold-related mortality in UK regions and Australian cities over the 21st century under three climate change scenarios.
Both countries experience substantial temperature-related mortality burdens every year, with the number of deaths attributable to cold currently much higher than the number of those due to heat. In all regions and cities included in the analysis, the elderly (particularly those ≥ 85 years old) were most at risk. London appeared more vulnerable to both hot and cold weather compared with most other regions in England and Wales, whereas the population of Melbourne appeared to be better protected from heat. Geographical heterogeneity in these risk estimates may reflect differences in demographic, health, behavioral, urban, and built-environment characteristics. Projected changes in climate are likely to lead to a steep increase in heat-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia over this century, but also in a proportionally smaller decrease in cold-related deaths. The absolute number of cold-related deaths is projected to remain higher than that of heat-related deaths in both countries over the assessment period, indicating that interventions to reduce cold-related mortality are needed now and will be useful for decades to come. However, health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary. Future temperature-related health burdens will be amplified by aging populations.
This study indicates that percentile temperature thresholds for heat and cold effects (see Supplemental Material, Figure S1 http://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/wp-content/uploads/122/12/ehp.1307524.s001.508.pdf) are consistent between two countries with very different temperature regimes but similar socioeconomic characteristics. Differences in RR estimates between cities or regions (within the same country or in different countries) can provide insights into effective adaptation to climate change and health protection against severe weather. There is a clear research need to further characterize the health effects of heat and cold taking population acclimatization and adaptation into account. This will enable evidence-based assessments for climate change adaption planning.
Conclusions
Comparisons between temperature-related mortality estimates from different countries are difficult due to variations in the use of emissions scenarios, climate models, future adaptation and demographic assumptions, and modeling choices in epidemiological time-series analyses. In this study, we have followed the same methods for assessing heat- and cold-related mortality in UK regions and Australian cities over the 21st century under three climate change scenarios.
Both countries experience substantial temperature-related mortality burdens every year, with the number of deaths attributable to cold currently much higher than the number of those due to heat. In all regions and cities included in the analysis, the elderly (particularly those ≥ 85 years old) were most at risk. London appeared more vulnerable to both hot and cold weather compared with most other regions in England and Wales, whereas the population of Melbourne appeared to be better protected from heat. Geographical heterogeneity in these risk estimates may reflect differences in demographic, health, behavioral, urban, and built-environment characteristics. Projected changes in climate are likely to lead to a steep increase in heat-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia over this century, but also in a proportionally smaller decrease in cold-related deaths. The absolute number of cold-related deaths is projected to remain higher than that of heat-related deaths in both countries over the assessment period, indicating that interventions to reduce cold-related mortality are needed now and will be useful for decades to come. However, health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary. Future temperature-related health burdens will be amplified by aging populations.
This study indicates that percentile temperature thresholds for heat and cold effects (see Supplemental Material, Figure S1 http://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/wp-content/uploads/122/12/ehp.1307524.s001.508.pdf) are consistent between two countries with very different temperature regimes but similar socioeconomic characteristics. Differences in RR estimates between cities or regions (within the same country or in different countries) can provide insights into effective adaptation to climate change and health protection against severe weather. There is a clear research need to further characterize the health effects of heat and cold taking population acclimatization and adaptation into account. This will enable evidence-based assessments for climate change adaption planning.
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