Published May 23, 2015

In baseball, July 4 is usually the holiday that keen observers use as a barometer for a team's pennant chances. 

If a club is in first place on Independence Day, the narrative goes, then it has a great chance of being there when the season ends. Not sure what the numbers say about that, but it's a long-running baseball axiom.

We're not quite to July 4 yet, but Memorial Day is upon us.


How much of a barometer of playoff chances is being in first place on Memorial Day?

When it comes to the history of the Tigers franchise, the team has won the league pennant or a divisional title 15 times, starting with three straight pennants from 1907-09 and continuing to four straight Central Division titles from 2011-14.

In 10 of those 15 years, the Tigers were not in first place on Memorial Day (known as Decoration Day until after WWII, when it began to change). Not only that, but only three times in those ten years were the Tigers as high as even second place on the last Monday of May.

They were as low as fifth place once and sixth place once.

Yet all ten times, the Tigers rallied to win the pennant/division.

Of the five times the Tigers were in first place on Memorial Day, their biggest lead on the holiday was 5.5 games (1984).

Here's a quick look at the 15 occasions---specifically where the Tigers were on Memorial Day and how they finished.

1907. The Tigers were 18-12 and in third place, 3.5 games off the mark, on Memorial Day (MD).

They ended up winning the first pennant in franchise history with a 92-58 record, 1.5 games ahead of Connie Mack's Philadelphia A's. The Tigers lost in the World Series to the Chicago Cubs, 4-0. 

1908. Before capturing their second straight league pennant, the Tigers were buried in fifth place on MD, 15-14 and three games behind. A 75-49 finish gave the Tigers the flag as they edged Cleveland by a half-game. In the World Series, the Tigers again fell to the Cubs, 4-1. It remains the Cubs' last World Series title.

1909. The Tigers won a third consecutive AL flag, and for the first time, they led the pack on MD. The Tigers were a robust 20-11, 1.5 games in front, on their way to a 98-54 record and a 3.5-game cushion over the A's. The Pittsburgh Pirates beat the Tigers in a bitter seven-game World Series.

1934. The Tigers went through a 24-year, pennant-less drought before finally breaking through under new player/manager Mickey Cochrane. On MD, the Tigers were 19-16 and in third place, two games out. They would finish seven games ahead of the New York Yankees at 101-53. A World Series title continued to be elusive, however, as the Tigers fell in seven games to the St. Louis Cardinals.

1935. The Tigers were way back in sixth place in a crowded league field, 17-16 and four games behind, on MD. But a torrid second half gave them the pennant, 93-58 and three games ahead of the Yankees. Finally, the Tigers became World Champs, defeating the Cubs in the Series, 4-2.

1940. A pennant-winning, 90-64 record (one game ahead of Cleveland) was preceded by a 17-14 record on MD, good for third place, 3.5 games off the lead. But it was another World Series fail, as the Cincinnati Reds beat the Tigers, 4-3.

1945. On MD in '45, the Tigers were 17-11 and in second place, 1.5 games off the lead. The season ended with the franchise's seventh pennant---88-65, 1.5 games ahead of the Washington Senators. In the Fall Classic, the Tigers won their second world championship with a 4-3 Series win over the Cubs.

1968. It took more than two decades for the Tigers' next pennant, and on MD in 1968, the team was 24-16 and in first place, one-half game ahead of Baltimore. The Tigers raced away from the pack and ended 103-59, 12 games ahead of the Orioles. The World Series was one for the ages as the Tigers rallied from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Cardinals.

1972. The core of the '68 team managed to squeeze out a division title, and on MD the Tigers were 20-16 and in second place, a half-game out of first. The season ended with an 86-70 record, a half-game ahead of the Boston Red Sox in the American League East. The Oakland A's broke every Tigers fan's heart with a 3-2 win in the ALCS.

1984. The Roar of '84 was a relentless Tigers march to the division title. The team started 35-5 and on MD, the record was 36-8, 5.5 games ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays, who at 31-14 were no slouches. But the Tigers pulled away from the Jays gradually, finishing 104-58 and a whopping 15 games ahead of Toronto at season's end. The Tigers went 3-0 in the ALCS vs. Kansas City and 4-1 against the San Diego Padres in the World Series.

1987. This was quite the comeback. The Tigers started 11-19 and on MD, they were 21-21 and in fifth place in the seven-team East Division, seven games behind. But a furious rally gave the Tigers the division crown on the season's final day with a 98-64 record, two games ahead of Toronto. However, that energy spent the Tigers, who lost to Minnesota in the ALCS, 4-1.

2011. The first of four straight Central titles began with the Tigers 24-23 on MD, in second place but seven games behind first place Cleveland. The two teams then went in opposite directions, as the Tigers lapped the Indians and cruised to the division with a 95-67 record, 15 games ahead of the Tribe. The Tigers won the ALDS over the Yankees but lost in the ALCS to Texas, 4-2.

2012. The defending division champion Tigers struggled for much of the year. On MD, the Tigers were 23-25 and in third place, four games off the pace. It wasn't until late-September that the Tigers were able to overtake the surprising Chicago White Sox, winning the division with an 88-74 record, three games ahead of the Pale Hose. The Tigers made it to the World Series, but were swept by the San Francisco Giants.

2013. A third straight division title was on the horizon, and on MD the Tigers were 29-20 and in first place, 2.5 games ahead of second place Cleveland. They would finish 93-69 and one game ahead of the Tribe, whose late push fell short. In the ALCS, the Red Sox dumped the Tigers out in six games, thanks largely to a bullpen that failed miserably.

2014. The Tigers won yet another Central Division title, and they started strong. On MD, the Tigers were 28-19 and ahead of the second-place Kansas City Royals by five games. The Royals wouldn't go away, however, and the Tigers needed the 162nd game to finally seal the deal with a 90-72 record, one game ahead of KC. But the post-season was short-lived as Baltimore swept the Tigers in the ALDS.

So there you have it. Fifteen post-season appearances, and two-thirds of them involved the Tigers rallying from behind on Memorial Day. 

This year, the Tigers will be no better than second place on Memorial Day, as the high-flying Royals are out to prove that their World Series run last year was no fluke.

The Tigers have only been in first place five times on Memorial Day in the years when they've won pennants/divisions---but two of those came in the last two years.

Bottom line: who knows what will happen in 2015---but Tigers fans shouldn't fret just because their team isn't in first place on Memorial Day.

History shows that.